Mechelen vs Anderlecht — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mechelen
22%
Draw
26%
Anderlecht
53%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Anderlecht win 52.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Anderlecht win. Expected goals 1.18–1.80 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (11.1%), 0–1 (9.1%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Mechelen
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
Anderlecht
| 30 Aug | A | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Beveren | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Kortrijk | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mechelen (Home · 5 matches) | Anderlecht (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Mechelen's home record; away stats use Anderlecht's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.