🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League·Sunday, 30 August 2026·11:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | 4.35 | 4.35 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Club Brugge | 1.74 | 1.74 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketGent
22%
Draw
22%
Club Brugge
56%
Gent 1.09 xGexpected goals1.79 xG Club Brugge
Club Brugge win 56% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (11.4%).
Gent score at least twice in 30%; Club Brugge in 54%.
1–2 11.4%1–1 10.5%0–1 10.5%0–2 9.4%1–3 6.2%0–0 5.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Gent goals · columns = Club Brugge goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score56%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Gent clean sheet16%
Club Brugge clean sheet34%
Gent score 2+30%
Club Brugge score 2+54%
Gent score 3+10%
Model vs market
| Source | Gent | Draw | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 22% | 56% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Gent
| 27 Jul | A | vs St Truiden | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Mechelen | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 1–1 | D |
Club Brugge
| 27 Jul | H | vs Genk | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Mechelen | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Gent | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 24 May 26 | Club BruggevsGent | 5 – 0 |
| 26 Apr 26 | GentvsClub Brugge | 0 – 2 |
| 21 Dec 25 | Club BruggevsGent | 2 – 1 |
| 31 Aug 25 | GentvsClub Brugge | 1 – 1 |
Gent: 0W 1D 3L in last 4
Model context
| Stat | Gent (Home) | Club Brugge (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 65.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 35.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.90 |
Home stats use Gent's home record; away stats use Club Brugge's away record this season.