Gent vs Anderlecht — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Gent
44%
Draw
28%
Anderlecht
28%
Expected goals
1.49–1.15
Gent · Anderlecht
Gent win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gent win is 1–0 (9.6%).
Gent score at least twice in 44%; Anderlecht in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Anderlecht goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gent goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gent | 2.34 |
| Draw | 3.15 |
| Anderlecht | 3.28 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.43–1.18 → 1.49–1.15
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Gent
| 3 Sept | H | vs OH Leuven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1–0 | W |
Anderlecht
| 30 Aug | A | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Beveren | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Kortrijk | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gent (Home · 4 matches) | Anderlecht (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Gent's home record; away stats use Anderlecht's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.