Genk vs Gent — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 29.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Genk
47%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Gent
24%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Genk win. Expected goals 1.71–1.18 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–0 (7.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Genk
| 9 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–4 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
Gent
| 3 Sept | H | vs OH Leuven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Genk (Home · 5 matches) | Gent (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Genk's home record; away stats use Gent's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.