Club Brugge vs St Truiden — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Club Brugge
72%
Draw
16%
St Truiden
12%
Expected goals
2.57–0.98
Club Brugge · St Truiden
Club Brugge win 72% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.5%), 3–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Club Brugge score at least twice in 73%; St Truiden in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
St Truiden goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Club Brugge goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| Market reference | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 72% | 16% | 12% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 1.35 |
| Draw | 5.70 |
| St Truiden | 7.13 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Club Brugge
| 7 Aug | H | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gent | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
St Truiden
| 2 Sept | H | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Club Brugge (Home · 4 matches) | St Truiden (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 5.00 |
Home stats use Club Brugge's home record; away stats use St Truiden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.