Club Brugge vs Genk — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Club Brugge
63%
Draw
19%
Genk
17%
Expected goals
2.30–1.11
Club Brugge · Genk
Club Brugge win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.5%), 2–0 (8.8%), 1–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Club Brugge score at least twice in 67%; Genk in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Genk goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Club Brugge goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 65% | 20% | 16% |
| Market reference | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 63% | 19% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge | 1.54 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.54 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.83 | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.72 | 5.10 | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.12 | 5.10 Betano |
| Genk | 5.36 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 5.64 | 6.10 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 4.70 | 6.10 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Club Brugge
| 7 Aug | H | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gent | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
Genk
| 9 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–4 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Club Brugge (Home · 4 matches) | Genk (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Club Brugge's home record; away stats use Genk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.