Charleroi vs St. Gilloise — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Charleroi
29%
Draw
27%
St. Gilloise
44%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a St. Gilloise win 44.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St. Gilloise win. Expected goals 1.24–1.58 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (9.1%), 0–1 (8.4%). It finished 2–3.
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Charleroi
| 9 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
St. Gilloise
| 8 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 5–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Charleroi | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Charleroi (Home · 5 matches) | St. Gilloise (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.60 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Charleroi's home record; away stats use St. Gilloise's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.