Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Charleroi
54%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Cercle Brugge
23%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Charleroi win 53.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Charleroi win. Expected goals 1.84–1.15 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–1 (10.2%), 1–0 (8.7%). It finished 3–2.
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Charleroi
| 9 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
Cercle Brugge
| 8 Aug | A | vs Standard Liege | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 3–3 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Club Brugge | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Gent | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Charleroi (Home · 5 matches) | Cercle Brugge (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.60 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Charleroi's home record; away stats use Cercle Brugge's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.