Antwerp vs Union SG — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Antwerp
18%
Draw
22%
Union SG
60%
Expected goals
1.11–1.82
Antwerp · Union SG
Union SG win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (14.0%), 0–1 (11.7%), 1–1 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Antwerp score at least twice in 30%; Union SG in 57%.
Scoreline distribution
Union SG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 10.4 | 14.0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Antwerp goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Market reference | 18% | 22% | 60% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | 5.26 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 5.28 | 5.40 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.15 | 4.59 | 5.40 Betano |
| Draw | 4.28 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 3.67 | 4.40 Betano |
| Union SG | 1.63 | 1.55 | 1.60 | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 1.53 | 1.63 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Antwerp
| 9 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Genk | 4–4 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Standard Liege | 0–1 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Antwerp (Home · 4 matches) | Union SG (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | — |
Home stats use Antwerp's home record; away stats use Union SG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.