Antwerp vs St Truiden — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Antwerp
41%
top pick
Draw
26%
St Truiden
33%
result
Final score
1–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a St Truiden win 33.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Antwerp win. Expected goals 1.50–1.35 against 1–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (8.0%). It finished 1–4.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Antwerp
| 9 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Genk | 4–4 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Standard Liege | 0–1 | L |
St Truiden
| 2 Sept | H | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Antwerp (Home · 4 matches) | St Truiden (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Antwerp's home record; away stats use St Truiden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.