🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League·Sunday, 30 August 2026·14:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | 2.43 | 2.43 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.52 |
| St Truiden | 2.91 | 2.91 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAntwerp
40%
Draw
27%
St Truiden
33%
Antwerp 1.40 xGexpected goals1.29 xG St Truiden
Antwerp win 40% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.9%).
Antwerp score at least twice in 41%; St Truiden in 37%.
1–1 12.9%2–1 9.1%1–0 9.1%0–0 7.6%1–2 7.5%0–1 7.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Antwerp goals · columns = St Truiden goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Antwerp clean sheet28%
St Truiden clean sheet24%
Antwerp score 2+41%
St Truiden score 2+37%
Antwerp score 3+16%
Model vs market
| Source | Antwerp | Draw | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 27% | 33% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Antwerp
| 25 Jul | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Genk | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–1 | W |
St Truiden
| 27 Jul | H | vs Gent | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Dender | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Antwerp (Home) | St Truiden (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 55.0% | 55.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Antwerp's home record; away stats use St Truiden's away record this season.