Antwerp vs Charleroi — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Antwerp
24%
Draw
23%
Charleroi
54%
Expected goals
1.18–1.83
Antwerp · Charleroi
Charleroi win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.6%), 0–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Antwerp score at least twice in 33%; Charleroi in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
Charleroi goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Antwerp goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Market reference | 24% | 23% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 24% | 23% | 54% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Antwerp | 3.96 |
| Draw | 4.10 |
| Charleroi | 1.79 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Antwerp
| 9 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Genk | 4–4 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Standard Liege | 0–1 | L |
Charleroi
| 9 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Antwerp (Home · 4 matches) | Charleroi (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Antwerp's home record; away stats use Charleroi's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.