Anderlecht vs Waregem — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Anderlecht
55%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Waregem
20%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Anderlecht win 54.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Anderlecht win. Expected goals 1.76–0.95 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.9%), 1–0 (10.4%), 2–0 (10.3%). It finished 3–0.
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Anderlecht
| 30 Aug | A | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Beveren | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Kortrijk | 1–0 | W |
Waregem
| 9 Aug | H | vs Genk | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kortrijk | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Anderlecht (Home · 5 matches) | Waregem (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Anderlecht's home record; away stats use Waregem's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.