Anderlecht vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Anderlecht
68%
Draw
19%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
13%
Expected goals
2.26–0.94
Anderlecht · Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Anderlecht win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.6%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Anderlecht score at least twice in 67%; Oud-Heverlee Leuven in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Oud-Heverlee Leuven goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Anderlecht goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market reference | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 19% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Anderlecht
| 30 Aug | A | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Beveren | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Kortrijk | 1–0 | W |
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
| 9 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Gent | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Beveren | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Anderlecht (Home · 5 matches) | Oud-Heverlee Leuven (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Anderlecht's home record; away stats use Oud-Heverlee Leuven's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.