Western Sydney vs Auckland FC — A-League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Western Sydney
vs
06:00
Auckland FC
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Western Sydney
38%
Draw
26%
Auckland FC
35%
Expected goals
1.54–1.42
Western Sydney · Auckland FC
Western Sydney win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Western Sydney score at least twice in 45%; Auckland FC in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Auckland FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Western Sydney goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market reference | 38% | 26% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 26% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.