Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory — A-League forecast, Sunday, 18 October 2026
Wellington Phoenix
vs
02:00
Melbourne Victory
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wellington Phoenix
33%
Draw
25%
Melbourne Victory
42%
Expected goals
1.32–1.54
Wellington Phoenix · Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wellington Phoenix score at least twice in 38%; Melbourne Victory in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Melbourne Victory goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wellington Phoenix goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 27% | 43% |
| Market reference | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 25% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.