Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur — A-League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Wellington Phoenix
vs
02:00
Macarthur
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wellington Phoenix
53%
Draw
23%
Macarthur
24%
Expected goals
1.68–1.12
Wellington Phoenix · Macarthur
Wellington Phoenix win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (11.0%), 1–0 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Wellington Phoenix win is 2–1 (11.0%).
Wellington Phoenix score at least twice in 51%; Macarthur in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Macarthur goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wellington Phoenix goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 23% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.