Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast — A-League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
A-League·Sunday, 25 October 2026·02:00
Wellington Phoenix
vs
02:00
Central Coast
Wellington PhoenixExpected goalsCentral Coast
1.55 xG1.35 xG
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Wellington Phoenix
41%
Draw
26%
Central Coast
32%
Expected goals
1.55–1.35
Wellington Phoenix · Central Coast
Wellington Phoenix win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–2 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wellington Phoenix score at least twice in 46%; Central Coast in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Central Coast goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wellington Phoenix goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score59%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet26%
Central Coast clean sheet21%
Wellington Phoenix score 2+46%
Central Coast score 2+39%
Wellington Phoenix score 3+20%
Central Coast score 3+16%
Most likely scores
1–112.4%
2–18.9%
1–27.8%
1–07.6%
2–06.6%
0–16.5%
What changed overnight?
vs previous runWellington Phoenix win52% → 41% ▼-11.3pp
Draw25% → 26% ▲+2.0pp
Central Coast win23% → 32% ▲+9.3pp
xG 1.74–1.19 → 1.55–1.35
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.