Sydney FC vs Adelaide United — A-League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Sydney FC
vs
04:00
Adelaide United
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sydney FC
43%
Draw
26%
Adelaide United
30%
Expected goals
1.58–1.37
Sydney FC · Adelaide United
Sydney FC win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (10.0%), 1–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sydney FC win is 2–1 (10.0%).
Sydney FC score at least twice in 47%; Adelaide United in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Adelaide United goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sydney FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 26% | 38% |
| Market reference | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 26% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.