Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets — A-League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Perth Glory
vs
10:45
Newcastle Jets
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Perth Glory
38%
Draw
24%
Newcastle Jets
38%
Expected goals
1.46–1.51
Perth Glory · Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.3%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Perth Glory score at least twice in 43%; Newcastle Jets in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Newcastle Jets goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Perth Glory goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market reference | 38% | 24% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 24% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.