Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Newcastle Jets
vs
04:00
Wellington Phoenix
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Newcastle Jets
49%
Draw
24%
Wellington Phoenix
27%
Expected goals
1.85–1.26
Newcastle Jets · Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (8.9%), 2–0 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Newcastle Jets win is 2–1 (8.9%).
Newcastle Jets score at least twice in 55%; Wellington Phoenix in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Wellington Phoenix goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Newcastle Jets goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Market reference | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 24% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.