Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC — A-League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Newcastle Jets
vs
04:00
Macarthur FC
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Newcastle Jets
45%
Draw
25%
Macarthur FC
30%
Expected goals
1.78–1.36
Newcastle Jets · Macarthur FC
Newcastle Jets win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Newcastle Jets win is 2–1 (8.4%).
Newcastle Jets score at least twice in 53%; Macarthur FC in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Macarthur FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Newcastle Jets goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market reference | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.