Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast — A-League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Melbourne Victory
vs
04:00
Central Coast
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Melbourne Victory
68%
Draw
18%
Central Coast
14%
Expected goals
2.06–0.95
Melbourne Victory · Central Coast
Melbourne Victory win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–0 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Melbourne Victory score at least twice in 63%; Central Coast in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Central Coast goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Melbourne Victory goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market reference | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 68% | 18% | 14% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 2.01–0.98 → 2.06–0.95
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.