Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers — A-League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Melbourne City
vs
08:40
Western Sydney Wanderers
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Melbourne City
45%
Draw
26%
Western Sydney Wanderers
30%
Expected goals
1.61–1.22
Melbourne City · Western Sydney Wanderers
Melbourne City win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (8.6%), 1–0 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Melbourne City win is 2–1 (8.6%).
Melbourne City score at least twice in 47%; Western Sydney Wanderers in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Western Sydney Wanderers goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Melbourne City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.