Melbourne City vs Western Sydney — A-League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Melbourne City
vs
08:40
Western Sydney
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Melbourne City
43%
Draw
26%
Western Sydney
32%
Expected goals
1.55–1.25
Melbourne City · Western Sydney
Melbourne City win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Melbourne City win is 2–1 (8.4%).
Melbourne City score at least twice in 45%; Western Sydney in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Western Sydney goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Melbourne City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market reference | 43% | 26% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 26% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.