Melbourne City vs Sydney FC — A-League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Melbourne City
vs
06:00
Sydney FC
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Melbourne City
45%
Draw
27%
Sydney FC
28%
Expected goals
1.65–1.21
Melbourne City · Sydney FC
Melbourne City win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (8.5%), 1–0 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Melbourne City win is 2–1 (8.5%).
Melbourne City score at least twice in 48%; Sydney FC in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Sydney FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Melbourne City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market reference | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 27% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.69–1.17 → 1.65–1.21
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.