Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory — A-League forecast, Saturday, 17 October 2026
Macarthur FC
vs
06:00
Perth Glory
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Macarthur FC
50%
Draw
25%
Perth Glory
25%
Expected goals
1.74–1.15
Macarthur FC · Perth Glory
Macarthur FC win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Macarthur FC win is 2–1 (9.2%).
Macarthur FC score at least twice in 52%; Perth Glory in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Perth Glory goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Macarthur FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market reference | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.