Central Coast vs Newcastle Jets — A-League forecast, Saturday, 17 October 2026
Central Coast
vs
08:40
Newcastle Jets
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Central Coast
24%
Draw
21%
Newcastle Jets
55%
Expected goals
1.28–1.82
Central Coast · Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (12.7%), 1–1 (9.8%), 0–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Central Coast score at least twice in 36%; Newcastle Jets in 56%.
Scoreline distribution
Newcastle Jets goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Central Coast goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 26% | 36% |
| Market reference | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| Metis Forecast | 24% | 21% | 55% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.