Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory — A-League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Central Coast Mariners
vs
06:00
Perth Glory
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Central Coast Mariners
34%
Draw
24%
Perth Glory
42%
Expected goals
1.35–1.44
Central Coast Mariners · Perth Glory
Perth Glory win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–2 (9.9%), 0–1 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Central Coast Mariners score at least twice in 39%; Perth Glory in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Perth Glory goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Central Coast Mariners goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 24% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.