Brisbane Roar vs Sydney — A-League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Brisbane Roar
vs
08:40
Sydney
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Brisbane Roar
38%
Draw
26%
Sydney
36%
Expected goals
1.34–1.33
Brisbane Roar · Sydney
Brisbane Roar win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–0 (9.1%), 2–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Brisbane Roar score at least twice in 39%; Sydney in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Sydney goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Brisbane Roar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market reference | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.