Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory — A-League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Brisbane Roar
vs
09:00
Perth Glory
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Brisbane Roar
42%
Draw
27%
Perth Glory
31%
Expected goals
1.36–1.14
Brisbane Roar · Perth Glory
Brisbane Roar win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (10.4%), 0–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Brisbane Roar score at least twice in 39%; Perth Glory in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Perth Glory goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Brisbane Roar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market reference | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.41–1.09 → 1.36–1.14
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.