Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC — A-League forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Brisbane Roar
vs
09:00
Auckland FC
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Brisbane Roar
31%
Draw
28%
Auckland FC
41%
Expected goals
1.33–1.50
Brisbane Roar · Auckland FC
Auckland FC win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–2 (9.3%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Brisbane Roar score at least twice in 38%; Auckland FC in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Auckland FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Brisbane Roar goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market reference | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.