Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Auckland
vs
04:00
Wellington Phoenix
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Auckland
41%
Draw
27%
Wellington Phoenix
32%
Expected goals
1.62–1.33
Auckland · Wellington Phoenix
Auckland win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Auckland score at least twice in 47%; Wellington Phoenix in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Wellington Phoenix goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Auckland goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market reference | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.69–1.27 → 1.62–1.33
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.