Auckland vs Melbourne Victory — A-League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Auckland
vs
04:00
Melbourne Victory
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Auckland
37%
Draw
27%
Melbourne Victory
36%
Expected goals
1.39–1.31
Auckland · Melbourne Victory
Auckland win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Auckland score at least twice in 40%; Melbourne Victory in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Melbourne Victory goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Auckland goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 27% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.