Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Auckland FC
vs
04:00
Wellington Phoenix
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Auckland FC
44%
Draw
26%
Wellington Phoenix
30%
Expected goals
1.62–1.30
Auckland FC · Wellington Phoenix
Auckland FC win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Auckland FC win is 2–1 (9.4%).
Auckland FC score at least twice in 48%; Wellington Phoenix in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Wellington Phoenix goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Auckland FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 26% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.