Auckland FC vs Melbourne City — A-League forecast, Saturday, 17 October 2026
Auckland FC
vs
04:00
Melbourne City
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Auckland FC
39%
Draw
29%
Melbourne City
32%
Expected goals
1.53–1.37
Auckland FC · Melbourne City
Auckland FC win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (7.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Auckland FC score at least twice in 45%; Melbourne City in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Melbourne City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Auckland FC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Market reference | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.