Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory — A-League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Adelaide United
vs
06:00
Melbourne Victory
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Adelaide United
34%
Draw
27%
Melbourne Victory
40%
Expected goals
1.45–1.49
Adelaide United · Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–2 (9.8%), 0–1 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Adelaide United score at least twice in 42%; Melbourne Victory in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Melbourne Victory goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Adelaide United goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market reference | 34% | 27% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 27% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.