🇺🇸 MLS·Saturday, 29 August 2026·23:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 2.53 | 2.53 |
| Draw | 3.71 | 3.71 |
| New York City | 2.72 | 2.72 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketToronto FC
38%
Draw
26%
New York City
36%
Toronto FC 1.48 xGexpected goals1.45 xG New York City
Toronto FC win 38% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.1%).
Toronto FC score at least twice in 44%; New York City in 42%.
1–1 12.1%2–1 8.9%1–2 8.0%1–0 7.4%0–1 6.7%0–0 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Toronto FC goals · columns = New York City goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Toronto FC clean sheet24%
New York City clean sheet23%
Toronto FC score 2+44%
New York City score 2+42%
Toronto FC score 3+19%
Model vs market
| Source | Toronto FC | Draw | New York City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 26% | 36% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Toronto FC
| 22 Feb | A | vs FC Dallas | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Columbus Crew | 2–1 | W |
New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 1 Aug 26 | New York CityvsToronto FC | 1 – 1 |
Toronto FC: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Toronto FC (Home) | New York City (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 70.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 72.7% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Toronto FC's home record; away stats use New York City's away record this season.