🇺🇸 MLS·Sunday, 30 August 2026·23:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.86 |
| FC Dallas | 3.42 | 3.42 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSt. Louis City
2%
Draw
46%
FC Dallas
52%
St. Louis City 0.97 xGexpected goals1.86 xG FC Dallas
FC Dallas win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 66% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (21.4%).
St. Louis City score at least twice in 24%; FC Dallas in 58%.
1–1 21.4%1–2 11.7%2–2 11.2%0–0 10.4%0–1 9.1%0–2 7.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 0.3 | 21.4 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = St. Louis City goals · columns = FC Dallas goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score66%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Over 4.5 goals15%
St. Louis City clean sheet11%
FC Dallas clean sheet34%
St. Louis City score 2+24%
FC Dallas score 2+58%
St. Louis City score 3+5%
Model vs market
| Source | St. Louis City | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 2% | 46% | 52% |
| Metis Forecast | 2% | 46% | 52% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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St. Louis City
| 21 Feb | H | vs Charlotte | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Mar | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Seattle Sounders | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | H | vs New England Revolution | 3–1 | W |
FC Dallas
| 22 Feb | H | vs Toronto FC | 3–2 | W |
| 1 Mar | H | vs Nashville SC | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Mar | H | vs San Diego FC | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Houston Dynamo | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | FC DallasvsSt. Louis City | 1 – 1 |
St. Louis City: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | St. Louis City (Home) | FC Dallas (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.90 | 3.17 |
Home stats use St. Louis City's home record; away stats use FC Dallas's away record this season.