Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Draw | 4.07 | 4.07 |
| Philadelphia Union | 2.18 | 2.18 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketNew York Red Bulls
32%
Draw
24%
Philadelphia Union
45%
Philadelphia Union win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (11.0%).
New York Red Bulls score at least twice in 41%; Philadelphia Union in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = New York Red Bulls goals · columns = Philadelphia Union goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Model vs market
| Source | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 26% | 30% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 32% | 24% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 24% | 45% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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New York Red Bulls
| 22 Feb | A | vs Orlando City | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs CF Montreal | 0–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Toronto FC | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 1–6 | L |
Philadelphia Union
| 22 Feb | A | vs DC United | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Mar | H | vs New York City | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 23 Jul 26 | Philadelphia UnionvsNew York Red Bulls | 3 – 1 |
New York Red Bulls: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | New York Red Bulls (Home) | Philadelphia Union (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 54.5% | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 45.5% | 72.7% |
| Clean sheet | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.36 | 4.18 |
Home stats use New York Red Bulls's home record; away stats use Philadelphia Union's away record this season.