Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| New York City | 2.58 | 2.58 |
| Draw | 3.57 | 3.57 |
| Nashville SC | 2.62 | 2.62 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketNew York City
37%
Draw
26%
Nashville SC
36%
New York City win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.4%).
New York City score at least twice in 43%; Nashville SC in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = New York City goals · columns = Nashville SC goals · % of simulations
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = New York City goals · columns = Nashville SC goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Model vs market
| Source | New York City | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 37% | 26% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 26% | 36% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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New York City
| 23 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Colorado Rapids | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 2–3 | L |
Nashville SC
| 22 Feb | H | vs New England Revolution | 4–1 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs FC Dallas | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Minnesota United | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Columbus Crew | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs Orlando City | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
| 24 May 26 | Nashville SCvsNew York City | 2 – 1 |
New York City: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | New York City (Home) | Nashville SC (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 72.7% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 72.7% | 30.0% |
| Clean sheet | 18.2% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.91 | 1.60 |
Home stats use New York City's home record; away stats use Nashville SC's away record this season.