🇺🇸 MLS·Saturday, 29 August 2026·23:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| Draw | 5.78 | 5.78 |
| CF Montreal | 6.21 | 6.21 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketInter Miami
69%
Draw
16%
CF Montreal
15%
Inter Miami 2.71 xGexpected goals1.08 xG CF Montreal
Inter Miami win 69% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (8.0%).
Inter Miami score at least twice in 74%; CF Montreal in 30%.
2–0 8.0%2–1 7.8%3–0 7.6%3–1 7.5%1–1 7.0%4–0 5.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
rows = Inter Miami goals · columns = CF Montreal goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score61%
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals73%
Over 3.5 goals52%
Over 4.5 goals33%
Inter Miami clean sheet35%
CF Montreal clean sheet8%
Inter Miami score 2+74%
CF Montreal score 2+30%
Inter Miami score 3+50%
Model vs market
| Source | Inter Miami | Draw | CF Montreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 69% | 16% | 15% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Inter Miami
| 22 Feb | A | vs Los Angeles FC | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 4–2 | W |
| 7 Mar | A | vs DC United | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Charlotte | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Mar | A | vs New York City | 3–2 | W |
CF Montreal
| 22 Feb | A | vs San Diego FC | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Feb | A | vs Chicago Fire | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | A | vs New York Red Bulls | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Mar | A | vs Orlando City | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Mar | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Jul 26 | CF MontrealvsInter Miami | 0 – 1 |
Inter Miami: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Inter Miami (Home) | CF Montreal (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 88.9% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 77.8% | 90.0% |
| Clean sheet | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.56 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Inter Miami's home record; away stats use CF Montreal's away record this season.