🇺🇸 MLS·Saturday, 29 August 2026·23:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Utd | 2.54 | 2.54 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.84 |
| Charlotte | 2.64 | 2.64 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAtlanta Utd
37%
Draw
25%
Charlotte
37%
Atlanta Utd 1.47 xGexpected goals1.50 xG Charlotte
Atlanta Utd win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.9%).
Atlanta Utd score at least twice in 43%; Charlotte in 44%.
1–1 11.9%2–1 8.9%1–2 8.1%1–0 7.1%0–1 6.6%2–2 6.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Atlanta Utd goals · columns = Charlotte goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score60%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Over 4.5 goals18%
Atlanta Utd clean sheet23%
Charlotte clean sheet23%
Atlanta Utd score 2+43%
Charlotte score 2+44%
Atlanta Utd score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Atlanta Utd | Draw | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 26% | 40% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 25% | 37% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Atlanta Utd
| 21 Feb | A | vs FC Cincinnati | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Mar | A | vs San Jose Earthquakes | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Real Salt Lake | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 3–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | H | vs DC United | 0–0 | D |
Charlotte
| 21 Feb | A | vs St. Louis City | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Los Angeles Galaxy | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | H | vs Austin FC | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Mar | H | vs New York Red Bulls | 6–1 | W |
Head to head
| 23 Jul 26 | CharlottevsAtlanta Utd | 2 – 2 |
Atlanta Utd: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Atlanta Utd (Home) | Charlotte (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 10.0% | 11.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.10 | 3.44 |
Home stats use Atlanta Utd's home record; away stats use Charlotte's away record this season.