🇪🇸 La Liga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 2.59 | 2.59 |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Valencia | 3.14 | 3.14 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketDeportivo La Coruna
37%
Draw
32%
Valencia
31%
Deportivo La Coruna 1.31 xGexpected goals1.14 xG Valencia
Deportivo La Coruna win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (15.1%).
Deportivo La Coruna score at least twice in 37%; Valencia in 32%.
1–1 15.1%0–0 10.4%1–0 9.4%0–1 8.8%2–1 7.8%1–2 7.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 15.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Deportivo La Coruna goals · columns = Valencia goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score52%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet32%
Valencia clean sheet27%
Deportivo La Coruna score 2+37%
Valencia score 2+32%
Deportivo La Coruna score 3+15%
Model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Coruna | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 32% | 31% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Valencia
| 16 Aug | H | vs Real Sociedad | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Barcelona | 0–6 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Athletic Club | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Deportivo La Coruna (Home) | Valencia (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 47.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | — | 26.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.68 |
Home stats use Deportivo La Coruna's home record; away stats use Valencia's away record this season.