🇩🇪 Bundesliga·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:30
Metis Forecast
model onlyBorussia Dortmund
64%
Draw
21%
Hamburger SV
15%
Borussia Dortmund 2.20 xGexpected goals1.08 xG Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund win 64% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9.8%).
Borussia Dortmund score at least twice in 65%; Hamburger SV in 29%.
2–1 9.8%1–1 9.6%2–0 9.1%1–0 7.5%3–1 7.2%3–0 6.7%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Borussia Dortmund goals · columns = Hamburger SV goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score59%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Over 4.5 goals23%
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet34%
Hamburger SV clean sheet11%
Borussia Dortmund score 2+65%
Hamburger SV score 2+29%
Borussia Dortmund score 3+38%
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Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
| 23 Aug | A | vs St. Pauli | 3–3 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Union Berlin | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs FC Heidenheim | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sept | A | vs Mainz 05 | 2–0 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Borussia Dortmund (Home) | Hamburger SV (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.2% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | — |
| Clean sheet | 52.9% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | — |
Home stats use Borussia Dortmund's home record; away stats use Hamburger SV's away record this season.