🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Saturday, 29 August 2026·23:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 2.24 | 2.24 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.28 |
| Bragantino | 3.54 | 3.54 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSao Paulo
43%
Draw
29%
Bragantino
27%
Sao Paulo 1.49 xGexpected goals1.03 xG Bragantino
Sao Paulo win 43% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.0%).
Sao Paulo score at least twice in 43%; Bragantino in 28%.
1–1 14.0%0–0 9.7%1–0 9.2%0–1 8.5%2–0 8.5%2–1 7.4%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Sao Paulo goals · columns = Bragantino goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Sao Paulo clean sheet35%
Bragantino clean sheet24%
Sao Paulo score 2+43%
Bragantino score 2+28%
Sao Paulo score 3+19%
Model vs market
| Source | Sao Paulo | Draw | Bragantino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 43% | 29% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 29% | 27% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Sao Paulo
| 29 Jan | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Gremio | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–0 | W |
Bragantino
| 28 Jan | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Corinthians | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Athletico-PR | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Mar | A | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | BragantinovsSao Paulo | 1 – 2 |
Sao Paulo: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sao Paulo (Home) | Bragantino (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 45.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 27.3% |
| Clean sheet | 30.0% | 27.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.09 |
Home stats use Sao Paulo's home record; away stats use Bragantino's away record this season.