🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:45
Metis Forecast
model onlyAS Monaco
30%
Draw
27%
Marseille
43%
AS Monaco 1.25 xGexpected goals1.52 xG Marseille
Marseille win 43% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.8%).
AS Monaco score at least twice in 36%; Marseille in 45%.
1–1 12.8%1–2 9.0%0–1 8.6%2–1 7.4%0–2 7.2%0–0 7.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = AS Monaco goals · columns = Marseille goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Over 4.5 goals15%
AS Monaco clean sheet22%
Marseille clean sheet29%
AS Monaco score 2+36%
Marseille score 2+45%
AS Monaco score 3+13%
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Recent form
No recent results.
Marseille
| 15 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 5–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lyon | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | AS Monaco (Home) | Marseille (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 35.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | — | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.76 |
Home stats use AS Monaco's home record; away stats use Marseille's away record this season.