🇩🇪 Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·13:30
Metis Forecast
model onlySC Freiburg
45%
Draw
26%
Werder Bremen
30%
SC Freiburg 1.69 xGexpected goals1.33 xG Werder Bremen
SC Freiburg win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.9%).
SC Freiburg score at least twice in 50%; Werder Bremen in 38%.
1–1 11.9%2–1 9.3%1–0 7.4%1–2 7.3%2–0 7.0%2–2 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = SC Freiburg goals · columns = Werder Bremen goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score61%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Over 4.5 goals19%
SC Freiburg clean sheet26%
Werder Bremen clean sheet19%
SC Freiburg score 2+50%
Werder Bremen score 2+38%
SC Freiburg score 3+24%
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Recent form
No recent results.
Werder Bremen
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–3 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | SC Freiburg (Home) | Werder Bremen (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 47.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | — | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.76 |
Home stats use SC Freiburg's home record; away stats use Werder Bremen's away record this season.