🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| KV Kortrijk | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Draw | 3.69 | 3.69 |
| Charleroi | 2.01 | 2.01 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketKV Kortrijk
26%
Draw
26%
Charleroi
48%
KV Kortrijk 1.15 xGexpected goals1.49 xG Charleroi
Charleroi win 48% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.4%).
KV Kortrijk score at least twice in 31%; Charleroi in 45%.
1–1 12.4%0–1 11.9%1–2 11.6%0–2 8.2%0–0 7.6%1–0 5.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = KV Kortrijk goals · columns = Charleroi goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
KV Kortrijk clean sheet21%
Charleroi clean sheet32%
KV Kortrijk score 2+31%
Charleroi score 2+45%
KV Kortrijk score 3+11%
Model vs market
| Source | KV Kortrijk | Draw | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 26% | 48% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Charleroi
| 27 Jul | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Antwerp | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Dender | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | KV Kortrijk (Home) | Charleroi (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 45.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 30.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.40 |
Home stats use KV Kortrijk's home record; away stats use Charleroi's away record this season.