Aston Villa head into this one in inconsistent form, winning two but losing two of their last five at home, while Liverpool arrive having taken seven points from a possible nine on the road before a stumble in their most recent away fixture. With both sides still in contention for Champions League qualification, the stakes are high and neither can afford a slip. The head-to-head sample is thin but Liverpool took the points in the only recent meeting.

The goals data is where this gets interesting. Liverpool's away games have produced over 2.5 goals in 72% of matches, well above the league average of 55%, and both teams have scored in 67% of those fixtures. Villa at home sit slightly below the BTTS league average at 50%, though they average 1.6 goals scored per game. The visitors look capable of finding the net, and this fixture has the feel of an open contest rather than a cagey one.

Overall, the visitors look undervalued here. Liverpool's away attacking output has been strong all season, and Villa's home defensive record, conceding in two thirds of games, offers little reassurance. This looks like a match that could be tighter in the table standings than in the actual performance levels on the pitch.