Toronto FC head into this one in decent shape, collecting eight points from their last five home outings and keeping the pressure on teams above them despite sitting 14th. Philadelphia Union, however, are in serious trouble at 29th and have been abysmal on the road, winning just once in their last five away fixtures while conceding 1.8 goals per game in that context.

The goals data is the standout element here. Toronto have seen both teams score in every single home game this season, well above the league average of 56%, and Philadelphia have kept a clean sheet nowhere this campaign. With Union averaging a goal per away game, there is enough to suggest Toronto will find the net, and history suggests they will concede too.

Form points to a Toronto win, and the visitors look genuinely short of what is needed on the road right now. This looks more comfortable for the hosts than the standings gap implies.